We propose a modeling framework which allows for creating probability predictions on a future market crash in the medium term, like sometime in the next five days. Our framework draws upon noticeable similarities between stock returns around a financial market crash and seismic activity around...

In simple static linear simultaneous equation models the empirical distributions of IV and OLS are examined under alternative sampling schemes and compared with their first-order asymptotic approximations. We demonstrate that the limiting distribution of consistent IV is not affected by...

This paper puts forward a method to estimate average economic growth, andits associated confidence bounds, which does not require a formal decision onpotential unit root properties. The method is based on the analysis of eitherdifference-stationary or trend-stationary time series models,...

This discussion paper led to a publication in <A href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167947306003446">'Computational Statistics & Data Analysis'</A> 51(7) 3296-318.<p>In practice structural equations are often estimated by least-squares, thus neglecting any simultaneity. This paper reveals why this may often be justifiable and when. Assuming data...</p></a>

We solve for the optimal portfolio allocation in a setting where both conditional correlation and theclustering of extreme events are considered. We demonstrate that there is a substantial welfare loss indisregarding tail dependence, even when dynamic conditional correlation has been accounted...