Several lessons learned from a Bayesian analysis of basic economic time series models by means of the Gibbs sampling algorithm are presented. Models include the Cochrane-Orcutt model for serial correlation, the Koyck distributed lag model, the Unit Root model, the Instrumental Variables model...

This discussion paper led to an article in <I>Statistica Neerlandica</I> (2003). Vol. 57, issue 4, pages 439-469.<P> The linear Gaussian state space model for which the common variance istreated as a stochastic time-varying variable is considered for themodelling of economic time series. The focus of this...</p></i>

We investigate changes in the time series characteristics of postwar U.S. inflation. In a model-based analysis the conditional mean of inflation is specified by a long memory autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average process and the conditional variance is modelled by a stochastic...

This discussion paper led to an article in the <I>Statistica Neerlandica</I> (2008). Vol. 62, issue 1, pages 104-130.<P> We model panel data of crime careers of juveniles from a Dutch Judicial Juvenile Institution. The data are decomposed into a systematic and an individual-specific component, of which...</p></i>

Likelihood based inference for multi-state latent factor intensity models is hindered by the fact that exact closed-form expressions for the implied data density are not available. This is a common and well-known problem for most parameter driven dynamic econometric models. This paper reviews,...

We solve for the optimal portfolio allocation in a setting where both conditional correlation and theclustering of extreme events are considered. We demonstrate that there is a substantial welfare loss indisregarding tail dependence, even when dynamic conditional correlation has been accounted...

In this paper we use Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the impact of effect size heterogeneity on the results of a meta-analysis. Specifically, we address the small sample behaviour of the OLS, the fixed effects regression and the mixed effects meta-estimators under three alternative...

In non-experimental sciences the errors associated with model misspecifications in primarystudies carry over to meta-analysis. We use Monte Carlo simulations to analyse the effects ofthese misspecifications on results of a meta-analysis using a meta-estimator that calculates asimple average...

A new empirical reduced-form model for credit rating transitions is introduced. It is a parametric intensity-based duration model with multiple states and driven by exogenous covariates and latent dynamic factors. The model has a generalized semi-Markov structure designed to accommodate many of...

This discussion paper has led to a publication in <A href="http://books.google.nl/books?id=_YdZrLu5MKEC&dq=allesintitel:+%22The+Refinement+of+Econometric+Estimation+and+Test+Procedures%22&lr=&source=gbs_navlinks_s"><B>The Refinement of Econometric Estimation and Test Procedures</B></A>.<P>An attempt is made to set rules for a fair and fruitful competition between alternative inference methods based on their performance in simulation experiments. This leads to a list of...</p></b></a>