This paper examines the pricing of public debt in a quantitative macroeconomic model with government default risk. Default may occur due to a fiscal policy that does not preclude a Ponzi game. When a build-up of public debt makes this outcome inevitable, households stop lending such that the...

See also <I>Proceedings of Banca d' Italia Public Finance Workshop on "Rules and Institutions for Sound Fiscal Policy after the Crisis"</I> (pp. 443-475). Rome: Banca d'Italia.<P> and<P> 'From Budgetary Forecasts to Ex Post Fiscal Data: Exploring the Evolution of Fiscal Forecast Errors in the European Union'...</p></p></i>

Recent macro developments in the euro area have highlighted the interactions between fiscal policy, sovereign debt, and financial fragility. We take a structural macroeconomic model with frictions in the financial intermediation process, in line with recent research, but introduce asset choice...

This paper resulted in a publication in the <A href="https://apps.webofknowledge.com/full_record.do?product=UA&search_mode=GeneralSearch&qid=4&SID=T2lPmvB33HytcbnHQmV&page=1&doc=1">'Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control'</A>, 2014, 43, 218-240.<P> We analyse the poisonous interaction between bank rescues, financial fragility and sovereign debt discounts. In our model balance sheet constrained financial intermediaries finance both...</p></a>

Keynesian theory predicts output responses upon a fiscal expansion in a small open economy to be larger under fixed than floating exchange rates. We analyse the effects of fiscal expansions using a New Keynesian model and find that the reverse holds in the presence of sovereign default risk. By...

We analyze the interaction between bank rescues, financial fragility and sovereign debt discounts. We construct a model that contains balance sheet constrained financial intermediaries financing both capital expenditure of intermediate goods producers and government deficits. The financial...

We investigate the effectiveness of `Keynesian' fiscal stimuli when government deficits and debt rollovers are (possibly partially) financed by balance sheet constrained financial intermediaries. Because financial intermediaries operate under a leverage constraint, deficit financing of fiscal...

This paper derives and estimates rules for fiscal policy that prescribe the optimal response to changes in unemployment and debt. We combine the reduced form model of the economy from a linear VAR with a non-linear welfare function and obtain analytic solutions for optimal policy. The variables...

We investigate the added value of combining density forecasts for asset return prediction in a specific region of support. We develop a new technique that takes into account model uncertainty by assigning weights to individual predictive densities using a scoring rule based on the censored...

Patton and Timmermann (2012, 'Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds', <I>Journal of Business & Economic Statistics</I>, 30(1) 1-17) propose a set of useful tests for forecast rationality or optimality under squared error loss, including an easily implemented test based on a...</i>