We model 1927-1997 U.S. business failure rates using a time series approach based on unobserved components. Clear evidence is found of cyclical behavior in default rates. The cycle has a period of around 10 years. We also detect longer term movements in default probabilities and default...

This discussion paper led to an article in the <I>Journal of Applied Econometrics</I> (2005). Vol. 20, issue 2, pages 311-323.<P> Various economic theories are available to explain the existence of credit and default cycles. There remains empirical ambiguity, however, as to whether or these cycles...</p></i>

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the <A href="http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/REST_a_00103">'Review of Economics and Statistics'</A>, 2010, 93(3), 982-994.<P> We propose a first order bias correction term for the Gini index to reduce the bias due to grouping. The first order correction term is obtained from studying the estimator of the...</p></a>