We estimate the relationship between international youth and professional tennis rankings. We find no difference between the predictiveness of rankings from age 14 & Under versus age 16 & Under competitions. The most persistent predictor of professional success is beating older top ranked...

This paper identifies matches on the male and female professional tennis tours in which one player faces a high payoff from being “on the bubble” of direct entry into one of the lucrative Grand Slam tournaments, while their opposition does not. Analyzing over 378,000 matches provides strong...

I use a dynamic Solow growth model, augmented with human capital, labor-hours, and oil prices, to show that Japan’s growth in GDP/adult over 1969-2007 can be explained as a process of convergence to a world steady-state rate of 1%/year. I find that each additional year of average schooling...

This article presents revised estimates of the external rates of return on investment in schooling provided in “Schooling and National Income: How Large Are the Externalities?” The analysis is based on data for the same set of countries, but it incorporates methodological improvements that...

We estimate the direct and external effects of levels of schooling on personal income in Ecuador in 2011, using data for 69,653 individuals in 567 municipalities. Using a Mincerian model that includes municipal levels of schooling and the size of the municipality and controls for endogeneity, we...

In 1960 Theodore Schultz expounded a human capital theory of economic growth that includes three elements: 1) Countries without much human capital cannot manage physical capital effectively, 2) Economic growth can only proceed if physical capital and human capital rise together, and 3) Human...

This paper challenges Hanushek and Woessmann’s [2008] contention that the quality and not the quantity of schooling determines a nation’s rate of economic growth. I first show that their statistical analysis is flawed. I then show that when a nation’s average test scores and average...

Development accounting depends on two simplifying assumptions, that economies can be represented by a common aggregate production function and that aggregate factors of production are paid their social marginal products. An aggregate production function can explain income across countries, but...

Annual growth in GDP/adult in Japan has declined from over 10% in 1969 to an average of 1% since the financial crisis in 1991. I show that a dynamic Solow growth model, augmented with human capital, weekly labor-hours, and oil prices, explains Japan’s annual growth rates from 1969 to 2007 as...

This paper explains why different studies present widely-varying estimates of the effect of increased schooling on national income. It shows that when correctly-interpreted, these studies support the hypothesis that a one-year increase in average schooling attainment raises national income...