The use of technical analysis by financial market professionals is not well understood. Thispaper thus analyzes survey evidence from 692 fund managers in five countries, the vast majorityof whom rely on technical analysis. At a forecasting horizon of weeks, technical analysis isthe most...

This paper examines the relative information shares of the Bund, i.e. the ten-year Euro bondfuture contract on German sovereign debt, versus two futures with shorter maturity. We findthat the Bund is most important but does not dominate price discovery. The other contractsalso have relevant –...

This paper examines the puzzlingly high unexploited momentum returns from a new perspective.We analyze characteristics of momentum traders in a sample of 692 fund managers. Wefind that momentum traders are “defined” by their short-term horizon, by a behavioural viewon the market and by a...

How is it possible that exchange rates move in the long run towards fundamentals, whileprofessionals form consistently irrational exchange rate expectations? We look at this puzzle from adifferent perspective by analyzing investor sentiment in the US-dollar market. First, long-horizonregressions...

This research enters new ground by presenting comparative survey evidence on assetmanagers' views and behavior in the United States, Germany, Japan and Thailand.Relying on Hofstede's four cultural dimensions, we find that cultural differencesare most helpful in understanding country differences...

This paper offers new insights into the Italian mutual fund industry. Surveying Italian professionals, we do notonly reveal typical gender differences but also detect divergence to their German counterparts. While disclosingItalian professionals’ overly positive self-assessment in general, we...

This paper makes three contributions to our understanding of the price discovery process in currencymarkets. First, it provides evidence that this process cannot be the familiar one based on adverse selectionand customer spreads, since such spreads are inversely related to a trade’s likely...

Using a new data set on investor sentiment we show that institutional and individualsentiment proxy for smart money and noise trader risk, respectively. First, usingbias-adjusted long-horizon regressions, we document that institutional sentiment forecastsstock market returns at intermediate...

The puzzling evidence of seemingly high momentum returns is related to an understanding ofrisk as a simple covariance. If we consider, however, risk in higher-order statistical moments,momentum returns appear less advantageous.

This paper extends earlier studies on exchange rate expectations' formation by using newdata and adding information about forecasters' reliance on fundamental analysis for the firsttime. We replicate the conventional result of non rational expectations. Moreover, biases inexpectations are...