How is it possible that exchange rates move in the long run towards fundamentals, whileprofessionals form consistently irrational exchange rate expectations? We look at this puzzle from adifferent perspective by analyzing investor sentiment in the US-dollar market. First, long-horizonregressions...

This research enters new ground by presenting comparative survey evidence on assetmanagers' views and behavior in the United States, Germany, Japan and Thailand.Relying on Hofstede's four cultural dimensions, we find that cultural differencesare most helpful in understanding country differences...

This paper offers new insights into the Italian mutual fund industry. Surveying Italian professionals, we do notonly reveal typical gender differences but also detect divergence to their German counterparts. While disclosingItalian professionals’ overly positive self-assessment in general, we...

This paper makes three contributions to our understanding of the price discovery process in currencymarkets. First, it provides evidence that this process cannot be the familiar one based on adverse selectionand customer spreads, since such spreads are inversely related to a trade’s likely...

Using a new data set on investor sentiment we show that institutional and individualsentiment proxy for smart money and noise trader risk, respectively. First, usingbias-adjusted long-horizon regressions, we document that institutional sentiment forecastsstock market returns at intermediate...

The puzzling evidence of seemingly high momentum returns is related to an understanding ofrisk as a simple covariance. If we consider, however, risk in higher-order statistical moments,momentum returns appear less advantageous.

This paper extends earlier studies on exchange rate expectations' formation by using newdata and adding information about forecasters' reliance on fundamental analysis for the firsttime. We replicate the conventional result of non rational expectations. Moreover, biases inexpectations are...

Our questionnaire survey finds that most fund managers rely on the strategies ofbuy-&-hold, momentum and contrarian trading. These strategies are typically appliedmutually. Their use is rooted in the attributes and beliefs of the respective fund managers:buy-&-hold traders behave fundamentally...

We study the relationship between foreign exchange trading activity and volatility on theUSD/EUR foreign exchange market on the basis of a unique data set around the events of09/11/2001. We find that volatility and bid-ask spreads are by far larger at that time, but theshock is not persistent....

This paper finds that fund managers do not expect mean reverting returns, as suggested by theory andempirical evidence, but mean averting returns.[...]