The following article develops a simultaneous multi-factor model for defaults and recoveries. Applying this model, risk parameters can be forecast using systematic and idiosyncratic risk fac-tors and their implied correlations. The theoretical framework is accompanied by an empirical analysis in...

A major topic in retail lending is the measurement of the inherent portfolio credit risk. Two importantparameters are default probabilities (PDs) and correlations. Both are considered in theNew Basel Accord. Due to limited empirical evidence on their magnitude, in particular for retailcredit...