Monetary policy contributes to stabilize growth. Particularly in a reforming context for financial and economic activities, it is important to know how central bankers’ decisions through the short term interest rate of the money market are transmitted to the real variables: the GDP and the...

Can investors with irrational beliefs be neglected as long as they are rational on average ? Does unbiased disagreement lead to trades that cancel out with no consequences on prices, as implicitly assumed by the traditional models ? We show in this paper that there is an important impact of...

This review article describes the main contributions in the literature on term structure models of commodity prices. The first section is devoted to the theoretical analysis of the term structure. It confines itself primarily to the traditional theories of commodity prices and to their...

This article presents and compares two different Kalman filters. These methods provide a very interesting way to cope with the presence of non-observable variables, which is a frequent problem in finance. They are also very fast even in the presence of a large information volume. The first...

In this article we present an introduction to various Filtering algorithms and some of their applications to the world of Quantitative Finance. We shall first mention the fundamental case of Gaussian noises where we obtain the well-known Kalman Filter. Because of common nonlinearities, we will...

Cet article s’appuie sur une analyse en composantes principales pour identifier les mouvements des courbes de prix du pétrole brut. L’étude confirme que trois composantes permettent d’expliquer les fluctuations des prix à terme : déplacement parallèle, pentification, et courbure. De...

In order to enhance the understanding of the term structure of commodity prices, this article examines the temporal integration of the American crude oil futures market. The study relies on a database including futures prices for very long maturities (as far as seven years) and compares their...

Whereas the spatial integration has already been examined in commodity markets, empirical tests on temporal integration have never been carried out. Relying on the “preferred habitat” theory, which is applied to the crude oil market, this article investigates whether this market is segmented...

We address the problem of a social planner who, as in Weitzman (2001), gathers data on discount rates and wants to infer the socially efficient consumption discount rate. We propose an equilibrium approach and we analyse the expression and the properties of the resulting equilibrium discount...