This paper merges two specifications recently developed in the forecasting literature: the MS-MIDAS model (Guérin and Marcellino, 2013) and the factor-MIDAS model (Marcellino and Schumacher, 2010). The MS-factor MIDAS model that we introduce incorporates the information provided by a large data...

In recent years, factor models have received increasing attention from both econometricians and practitioners in the forecasting of macroeconomic variables. In this context, Bai and Ng (2008) find an improvement in selecting indicators according to the forecast variable prior to factor...

This paper provides an analysis of co-movements between real and financial variables in three new EU member countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) and the euro area. It focuses on the co-movement between real credit granted to firms and real industrial output on the one hand, and...

This paper considers the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on the optimal level of public debt. Households are subject to both aggregate and idiosyncratic risk and insurance market imperfectness prevents them from from fully insuring against risk. We find that the optimal level of public debt...

In the early 2000s, nearly two million men – and less than one million women – were eligible for disability benefits in Britain. Initiated at the beginning of the 1980s, the Incapacity Benefit (IB) social welfare system perceived and treated these recipients as « disabled adults ». This...