Showing 1 - 10 of 71
This paper explores the forecasting abilities of Markov-Switching models. Although MS models generally display a … data for a wide range of specifications. In order to explain this poor performance, we use a forecasting error decomposition …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011072104
,...) and their applications for the enterprise: demand analysis and forecasting of sales, financial econometrics, marketing and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010707618
This article proposes an econometric analysis of the demand for mobility in the aviation sector. The role played by different variables (GDP, jet-fuel prices, exogenous shocks, market maturity) on air traffic is estimated using dynamic panel-data modeling. GDP appears to have a positive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011074078
We examine the effects of collateral provision as a potential channel between funding liquidity tensions and the scarcity of market liquidity. This channel consists in transferring the credit risk associated with refinancing operations between financial institutions to market participants that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010861364
The aim of this paper is to build and estimate a macroeconomic model of credit risk for the French manufacturing sector. This model is based on Wilson’s Credit Portfolio View model (1997a, 1997b); it enables us to simulate loss distributions for a credit portfolio for several macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010706440
We consider the channel consisting in transferring the credit risk associated with refinancing operations between financial institutions to market participants. In particular, we analyze liquidity and volatility premia on the French government debt securities market, since these assets are used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010706618
The aim of this article is to investigate whether anticipated technological progress can be expected to be strong enough to offset carbon dioxide (CO2)emissions resulting from the rapid growth of air transport. Aviation CO2 emissions projections are provided at the worldwide level and for eight...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011072424
this paper, we assess the forecasting ability of several classes of time series models for electricity wholesale spot … prices at a day-ahead horizon in France. Electricity spot prices display a strong seasonal pattern, particularly in France …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010795027
This paper develops two nonlinear cointegration models - a VECM with structural shift and a threshold cointegration model - applied to carbon spot and futures prices. The results extend the previous findings by Chevallier (2010), who studied this topic with a linear VECM. First, in the VECM with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010706371
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010905037