In this study we set the problem of the probable existence of an additive and multiplicative mixed seasonality. In this context, we show by some simulation that the seasonality correction according to a pure additive or a pure multiplicative scheme leads to biased estimators of the coefficients...

The assumption of linearity is implicitly accepted in the process which generates a time series condition submitted to a ARIMA. That is why, in this paper, we shall discuss the research of long memory in the processes: the fractional ARIMA models, denoted as ARFIMA, where d and D, the degree of...

This article proposes a new empirical methodology for computing a cross-market volatility index - coined CMIX - based on the Factor-Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model, implemented on volatility surprises. This approach solves problems in treating high-dimensional data and estimating...

We reinvestigate the issue of excess comovements of commodity prices initially raised in Pindyck and Rotemberg (1990). While Pindyck and Rotemberg and following contributions consider this issue using an arbitrary set of control variables, we develop our analysis using recent development in...

In recent years, the dynamics of M3 in the euro area have been driven by two factors : a strong preference for liquidity, observed between 2001 and 2003, followed by a normalisation, at a relatively moderate pace, of portfolio behaviour; as regards the counterparts, changes in M3 and net...

As both speculative and hedging financial flows into commodity futures are expected to link commodity price formation more strongly to equity indices, we investigate whether these processes also create increased correlation amongst the commodities themselves. Considering U.S. oil and gas...

We proceed to an impulse-response analysis on the conditional correlations between three stock indices returns: the S&P 500, the ftse 100 and the Nikkei 225. As a first step, a general asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (ga-dcc) model proposed by Cappiello, Engle and Sheppard [2006] is...

This paper explores the forecasting abilities of Markov-Switching models. Although MS models generally display a superior in-sample fit relative to linear models, the gain in prediction remains small. We confirm this result using simulated data for a wide range of specifications. In order to...

We proceed to an impulse response analysis on the conditional correlations between three stock indices returns: the Nikkei, the FTSE 100 and the S&P 500. As a first step, we estimate an extension of the general asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (GADCC) model proposed by Cappiello,...

We investigate the macro factors that can explain the monthly oil futures return for the NYMEX WTI futures contract for the time period 1993:11 to 2010:03. We build a new database of 187 real and nominal macroeconomic variables from developed and emerging countries and resort to the large factor...