This paper merges two specifications recently developed in the forecasting literature: the MS-MIDAS model (Guérin and Marcellino, 2013) and the factor-MIDAS model (Marcellino and Schumacher, 2010). The MS-factor MIDAS model that we introduce incorporates the information provided by a large data...

We reinvestigate the issue of excess comovements of commodity prices initially raised in Pindyck and Rotemberg (1990). While Pindyck and Rotemberg and following contributions consider this issue using an arbitrary set of control variables, we develop our analysis using recent development in...

This article develops a forecasting exercise of the volatility of EUA spot, EUA futures, and CER futures carbon prices (modeled after an AR(1)-GARCH(1,1)) using two dynamic factors as exogenous regressors that were extracted from a Factor Augmented VAR model (Bernanke et al. (2005)). The dataset...

This article assesses the transmission of international shocks to EUA spot, EUA futures, and CER futures carbon prices using a broad dataset that includes 115 macroeconomic, financial and commodities indicators with daily frequency from April 4, 2008 to January 25, 2010 totalling 463...

In recent years, central banks and international organisations have been making ever greater use of factor models to forecast macroeconomic variables. We examine the performance of these models in forecasting French GDP growth over short horizons. The factors are extracted from a large data set...

We propose a joint modeling of spot electricity prices, forwards prices and other derivative prices, using recent developments in discrete time asset pricing methods based on the notions of stochastic discount factor and of compound autoregressive (or affine) stochastic processes. We show that...

The aim of the paper is to analyze the impact of heterogeneous beliefs in an otherwise standard competitive complete markets discrete time economy. The construction of a consensus belief, as well as a consensus consumer are shown to be valid modulo a predictable aggregation bias, which takes the...

This paper presents a capital asset pricing model in the presence of asymmetric information and transaction costs. The model is a generalized version of Merton's (1987) model and Black's (1974) model. Empirical tests show a negative relation between the expected rate of return and the shadow...

The objective of this paper is to study the market, SMB, HML and The leverage factors inexplaining cross-sectional returns.We provide the first empirical analysis of Ferguson and Shockley (2003) theoretical frame work on the French stock market. Book to market and size, variables which a...

In this study, we test the size and the book to market effects in explaining stock returns with co-skewness and co-kurtosis on the French Stock Market over July 1976 to June 2001 period. Results of time series regressions of monthly portfolio returns are consistent with the Fama and French...