Outliers can lead to model misspecifications, poor forecasts and invalid inferences. Their identification and correction is therefore an important objective of financial modeling. This paper introduces a simple method to detect outliers in a financial series. It uses an AR(1)–GARCH(1,1) model...

This paper analyzes the special features of electricity spot prices derived from the physics of this commodity and from the economics of supply and demand in a market pool. Besides mean-reversion, a property they share with other commodities, power prices exhibit the unique feature of spikes in...

The thesis draws lessons from behavioural finance and nonlinear econometrics to build models that provide better explanatory and predictive powers of exchange rate dynamics than traditional models. The first article justifies the failure of traditional models by the failure of their underlying...

This article adopts the asymmetric DCC with one exogenous variable (ADCCX) model developed by Vargas (2008), by updating the concept of ‘volatility surprise’ to capture cross-market relationships. Current methods for measuring spillovers do not focus on volatility interactions, and neglect...

Casella and Robert (1996) presented a general Rao--Blackwellisation principle for accept-reject and Metropolis-Hastings schemes that leads to significant decreases in the variance of the resulting estimators, but at a high cost in computing and storage. Adopting a completely different...

Managers in the fundraising and public sectors face the constant challenge of soliciting donations from a population who may or may not have donated before. Rather than merely asking respondents what they wish to donate, it is standard practice to present a set of suggested amounts – the...

Private equity funds are a very important actor of the financial market. Their performance often exceeds the market performance. To establish a private equity fund, there are some agreements between the capital providers (limited partners) and the fund managers (the general partners). This...