We consider a simple random walk process, a special case ofthe Martingale model, which exhibits a deterministic break in its drift term,for instance, from positive to negative. This particular example can be aplausible model for a time series on exchange rates which displays a persistentcurrency...

The Hodrick-Prescott …lter is often applied to economic series as part of thestudy of business cycles. Its properties have most frequently been exploredthrough the development of essentially asymptotic results which are practicallyrelevant only some distance from series endpoints. Our concern...

In this paper we consider the situation where the deterministiccomponents of the processes generating individual series are linear trendsand the individual series are independent I(0) or I(1) processes. We showthat when those time series are used in ordinary least squares regression,the...

We consider the possibility of estimating a Dickey-Fuller regression, constraining the autoregressive parameter to be at most one, and imposing prior knowledge of the sign of the drift parameter. ...

In this paper we introduce a new test of the null hypothesis of nocointegration between a pair of time series. For a very simple generating model, ourtest compares favourably with the Engle-Granger/Dickey-Fuller test and the Johansentrace test. Indeed, shortcomings of the former motivated the...

It is known that Dickey-Fuller tests can lead to spurious rejections of the unit root nullhypothesis when the true generating process is difference-stationary with a break.Suppose now that an unsuccessful attempt is made to allow for a break, either throughmisplaced dummy variables or through...

We present the asymptotic properties of double-stage quantile regressionestimators with random regressors, where the first stage is based on quantile regressionswith the same quantile as in the second stage, which ensures robustness of the estimationprocedure. We derive invariance properties...

We explore the extension of James-Stein type estimators in a direction that enables them topreserve their superiority when the sample size goes to infinity. Instead of shrinking a base estimatortowards a fixed point, we shrink it towards a data-dependent point. We provide an analytic expression...

Sharpe style regression has become a widespread analytic tool in the financial community. Thestyle regression allows one to investigate such interesting issues as style composition, style sensitivity, andstyle change over time. All previous methods to obtain the distribution and confidence...

We present in this paper the asymptotic properties of two-stage quantile regressionestimators. These results permit valid inferences in structural models estimated using quantileregressions, in which the possible endogeneity of some explanatory variables is treated viaancilliary predictive...