The benefit from using second-order approximations tostochastic dynamic rational expec- tations models is explained. By example of the neoclassical growth model, this note as- sesses the accuracy of the obtained approximation. The implications for optimal policy are discussed.

One of the roots of the recent global financial crisis has been seen in the design of subprime mortgage contract leading to high sensitivity of such type of loans to house price changes. The market of subprime loans, especially in the last years preceding the crisis, has been highly financed by...

To improve the detection of the economic ”danger zones” from which severe banking crises emanate, this paper introduces classification tree ensembles to the banking crisis forecasting literature. I show that their out-of-sample performance in forecasting binary banking crisis indicators...

The public debt may hamper US GDP say studies that estimate debt tipping effects as if there were a single world currency. This means that such studies ignore the likely biggest cause of changes in growth rates, namely damage from exchange rate liquidity shocks because we do not live in the...

We demonstrate that in a CAPM economy Walras Law and the Tobin Separation Property characterize market demand in finite sets of prices. Consequently, for any number n there exist CAPM economies which have at least n equilibria and hence have n different beta pricing fomulas. It is shown that the...

We develop a new approach to pricing and hedging contingent claims in incomplete markets. Mimicking as closely as possible in an incomplete markets framework the no--arbitrage arguments that have been developed in complete markets leads us to defining the concept of pseudo--arbitrage. Building...

The Paper reports a basic Experiment on the option pricing approach. Each trader with an increasing utility for money values the option with his arbitrage free price, which is independent of the probability of the stock movement. The experimental data show that the traiders learn to exploit more...

This paper addresses the statistical properties of time series driven by rational bubbles a la Blanchard and Watson (1982). Using insights on the behavior of multiplicative stochastic processes, we demonstrate that the tails of the unconditional distribution emerging from such bubble processes...

In this survey we discuss models with level-dependent and stochastic volatility from the viewpoint of erivative asset analysis. Both classes of models are generalisations of the classical Black-Scholes model; they have been developed in an effort to build models that are flexible enough to cope...

Multi-fractal processes have been proposed as a new formalism for modeling the time series of returns in finance. The major attraction of these processes is their capability of generating various degrees of long-memory in different powers of returns - a feature that has been found to...