Showing 1 - 10 of 95
Many information structures generate correlated rather than mutually independent signals, the news media being a prime example. This paper shows experimentally that in such context many people neglect these correlations in the updating process and treat correlated information as independent. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010895827
We formulate a dynamic learning-and-adjustment model of a market in which sellers choose signals that potentially reveal their types. If the dynamic process selects a unique limiting outcome, then that outcome must be an undefeated equilibrium; though to be undefeated does not suffice to be the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004968265
This paper analyzes optimal incentive contracts for information acquisition and revelation. A decision maker faces the problem to design a contract that provides an expert with incentives to acquire and reveal information. We show that it is in general not optimal to reward the expert if his...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005001487
I consider a situation, where the agent can acquire payoff-relevant information either before or after the contract is signed. To raise efficiency, the principal might solicit information; to retain all surplus, however, she must prevent precontractual information gathering. The following class...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009651598
This paper analyzes truthtelling incentives in pre-vote communication in heterogeneous committees. We generalize the classical Condorcet jury model by introducing a new informational structure that captures consistency of information. In contrast to the impossibility result shown by Coughlan...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010617906
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004968460
In this Paper we propose a concept of stability for intertemporal equilibria with rational expectations: current period prices move proportionally to current period excess demand while future prices are formed according to the perfect foresight hypothesis. It is shown that this process is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004968170
This paper addresses the statistical properties of time series driven by rational bubbles a la Blanchard and Watson (1982). Using insights on the behavior of multiplicative stochastic processes, we demonstrate that the tails of the unconditional distribution emerging from such bubble processes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004968225
The finding of clustered volatility and ARCH effects is ubiquitous in financial data. This paper presents a possible explanation of this phenomenon within a multi-agent framework of speculative activity. In the model, both chartist and fundamentalist strategies are considered with agents...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004968303
In the context of standard two-period pure-exchange economies with sequential trade, this paper proposes a decentralized coordination mechanism for equilibriumexpectations, facilitated by local interactions between agents. Interactions are modelled stochastically by specifying a family of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004968361