Purpose ? To develop an integrated approach to forecasting spot foreign exchange rates by incorporating some principles underlying long-term dependence.Design/methodology/approach ? The paper utilises the random-walk framework to develop a stochastic forecast model wherein the sign (positive or...

An important assumption underlying traditional theories of financial time-series behaviour is that consecutive changes in the price of an asset (ie. asset returns) are independent of each other. For analysts seeking to predict the future value of an asset, this implies that the best step-ahead...

A large body of the literature argues that the soundness of financial system is largely determined by the economic and institutional environment in which the financial system works. Drawing on this theoretical underpinning, research in this thesis models financial soundness indicators (FSIs)...

When asset returns conform to a Gaussian distribution, the moments of the distribution over long return intervals may be estimated by scaling the moments of shorter return intervals. While it is well known that asset returns are not normally distributed, a key empirical question concerns the...

This paper examines whether the firm-level and the industry-level cross-sectional volatility (CSV) contains any incremental information about the future market-level volatility in Australia. We analyze daily equity returns data from 2 January 1992 to 31 May 2004. Using a conditional volatility...

Research in this thesis deals with some unexplored, or only partially explored, issues relating to the information content of volatility of the idiosyncratic component of asset returns at the firm and industry-level, both in the context of developed and emerging stock markets. Specific issues we...

This Paper examines the intraday behaviors of bid/ask spreads, depths and their determinants on an order-driven market in the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Our analysis shows that the intraday 5-minute bid/ask spreads display an L-shaped pattern and the depths exhibit an inverted L-shaped pattern....