Universitäten und andere Hochschulen haben prägende Wirkung auf die Städte und Regionen, in denen sie angesiedelt sind. Neben unmittelbaren Effekten als großer Arbeitgeber und Nachfrager nach Gütern und Dienstleistungen ergeben sich mittelbare Effekte durch die Ausgaben der Beschäftigten...

In vector autoregressive analysis confidence intervals for individual impulse responses are typically reported to indicate the sampling uncertainty in the estimation results. A range of methods are reviewed and a new proposal is made for constructing joint confidence bands, given a pre-specified...

This paper proposes a new approach of forecasting “prospective" comparative advantages based on relative prices differences between countries in the context of economic liberalization. An empirical analysis based on the example of Central and East European countries that have already passed...

Business tendency survey indicators are widely recognized as a key instrument for business cycle forecasting. Their leading indicator property is assessed with regard to forecasting industrial production in Russia and Germany. For this purpose, vector autoregressive (VAR) models are specified...

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve publishes the range of members’ forecasts for key macroeconomic variables, but not the distribution of forecasts within this range. To evaluate these projections, previous papers compare the midpoint of the ranges with the...