This article assesses the extent and nature of the stimulus that will be required to end the economic crisis that opened in 2008. It compares the present economic situation to that which opened in 1929 and studies the relation between state spending, investment, and employment.

Movement in China’s money supply is shown to drive the movement in world money supply over the last twenty years. Structural shocks to G3 (U.S., Eurozone and Japan) real M2 and to China’s real M2 are both large over 1996:1-2011:12. The cumulative impact of real G3 M2 shocks on real oil...

Michael Heinrich’s recent Monthly Review article claims that the law of the tendential fall in the rate of profit (LTFRP) was not proved by Marx and cannot be proved. Heinrich also argues that Marx had doubts about the law and that, for this and other reasons, his theory of capitalist economic...

Hamilton identifies 1973 to 1996 as “the age of OPEC” and 1997 to the present as “a new industrial age.” During 1974-1996 growth in non-OPEC oil production Granger causes growth in OPEC oil production. OPEC oil production decreases significantly with positive shocks to non-OPEC oil...

This paper investigates the relationship between oil prices and the global economy. In modelling this relationship, a new approach is proposed in which we introduce the use of a factor error correction model to compress data from the largest developed and developing economies. An important...

This paper investigates the influence of liquidity shocks in China on the U.S. economy over 1996-2012. The influence on the U.S. is through China’s influence on demand for imports, particularly that of commodities. In all models estimated a positive innovation in China’s liquidity is...

This article assesses the significance of the January 2009 US unemployment figures. The steep fall of 4 million jobs is greater than any 12-month fall in history. Does this mean that 2007-2008 heralds the worst recession since 1929? This article assesses the empirical evidence of the US payroll...