From 1960-2009, the U.S. current account balance has tended to decline during expansions and improve in recessions. We argue that trend shocks to productivity can help explain the countercyclical U.S. current account. Our framework is a two-country, two-good real business cycle (RBC) model in...

This paper uses a Bayesian approach to estimate a standard international real business cycle model augmented with preferences with zero wealth-effect, variable capacity utilization and investment adjustment costs. First, I find that the bulk of fluctuations in country-specific outputs,...

This paper analyses the dynamics and significance of supply sectors in planning the economic policy, in particular the impact (manufacturing, agriculture and services) on economic growth through 1970 – 2011 and three cohorts. In these sense, it uses the following tools: co-movements and multi...

This paper constructs a narrative account of all legislated discretionary policy changes in the United Kingdom from 1945 to 2009. Following Romer and Romer (2009, 2010), evidence of the policymakers’ motivation is presented from U.K. official Budget documents together with technical notes,...

This paper investigates the transmission mechanism of government spending shocks in an estimated dynamic general equilibrium model. I construct a New Keynesian model with distortionary labour and capital taxes and with references that allow the wealth effect on labour supply to vary in strength....

Global and European trade balances have seen strong divergences combined with strong movements in the exchange rate. Trade balances and real effective exchange rates are related. Using different measures of the real effective exchange rate, we show that this long-run link hinges on the relative...

The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter is a commonly used method, particularly in potential output studies. However its suitability depends on a number of conditions. Very small open economies do not satisfy these as their macroeconomic series exhibit pronounced trends, large fluctuations and...

This paper incorporates home production into a real business cycle (RBC) model of a small open economy to provide a parsimonious explanation of the empirical pattern of international business cycles in developed economies and emerging markets. It is well known in the literature that in order for...

Modern economics assumes that in the long run an economy develops in a balanced way, with full employment of resources and a constant inflation rate. The output level thereby achieved is called „potential output‟. Knowing the extent of the output gap, or the deviation from this equilibrium,...

Purpose – Considering the sectoral balance approach of Godley, and focusing only on the two main components of the private sector balance for the U.S. economy (household and non-financial corporate balance), we investigate the relationship between these two sectors, the financial variables,...