In the case of a flat prior, a conventional wisdom is that Bayesian inference may not be very different from classical inference, as the likelihood dominates the posterior density. This paper shows that there are cases in which this conventional wisdom does not apply. An ARMA model of real GDP...

The forecast plays an important role in the planning, the decision-making and control in any domain of activity, including the sportive phenomenon of the soccer. The experience has shown that the extrapolative or not casual models (univariate models), that use only the information of its past...

Savers, including pension savers, convert savings into assets: homes,government bonds and shares.The conversion of savings is for the very long term. Once monies are turned into assets, the reverse process of turning assets into cash cannot be achieved by all savers together. Unavoidably some...

Mid-long term projections of the Stability Programs (SP) are elaborated to simulate the burden each active citizen or each worker will have to bear for financing, via pay-as-you-go, public health care provisions and public pensions. It is worth mentioning that projections in the (SP) are those...

Currently, the Indonesian pension fund is prohibited from investing in international assets. In this paper, I quantitatively investigate the benefit and/or the cost, if any, caused by this constraint. Standard mean-variance techniques will be used along with Monte Carlo simulation to check the...

Reforms have begun in Pakistan to sustain the funded pension scheme for government-operated pension schemes such as the Employees Old Age Benefit Institution (EOBI). Presently, the EOBI operates its own fund and invests most of its assets in government-backed securities which are basically...

This paper considers two classes of semiparametric nonlinear regression models, in which nonlinear components are introduced to reflect the nonlinear fluctuation in the mean. A general estimation and testing procedure for nonparametric time series regression under the strong-mixing condition is...

This thesis advances game theory by formally analysing the implications of replacing some of its most stringent assumptions with alternatives that –at least in certain contexts– have received greater empirical support. Specifically, this thesis makes two distinct contributions in the field...

Mathematics has been extremely effective in physics, but not in economics beyond finance. To establish economics as science we should follow the Galilean method and try to deduce mathematical models of markets from empirical data, as has been done for financial markets. Financial markets are...

In this paper, we establish some new central limit theorems for generalized U-statistics of dependent processes under some mild conditions. Such central limit theorems complement existing existing results available from both the econometrics literature and statistics literature. We then look at...