In soccer penalty kicks, goalkeepers choose their action before they can clearly observe the kick direction. An analysis of 286 penalty kicks in top leagues and championships worldwide shows that given the probability distribution of kick direction, the optimal strategy for goalkeepers is to...

This book presents a simple, yet very powerful, conceptual framework, which can be used to estimate market sizes, prices and their interdependency for new products based on historical market data for existing products in related areas. Even in situations where insufficient data is available the...

The concept of unforeseen events is considered as a part of a hypothesis of uncertain future. The applications of the consequences of the hypothesis in utility and prospect theories are reviewed. Partially unforeseen events and their role in forecasting are analyzed. Preliminary preparations are...