Using a large information approach and full Bayesian VAR techniques, we study the economic effects of fiscal policy shocks in the U.S. over the last five decades. We find that omitted variables can explain the well known sample instability of the estimates for the fiscal multiplier. We also find...

We develop a theoretical framework to compare forecast uncertainty estimated from time series models to those available from survey density forecasts. The sum of the average variance of individual densities and the disagreement, which is the same as the variance of the aggregate density, is...

In this paper we discuss the calibration issues of models built on mean-reverting processes combined with Markov switching. Due to the unobservable switching mechanism, estimation of Markov regime-switching (MRS) models requires inferring not only the model parameters but also the state process...

Most existing semi-parametric estimation procedures for binary choice models are based on the maximum score, maximum likelihood, or nonlinear least squares principles. These methods have two problems. They are difficult to compute and they may result in multiple local optima because they require...

We provide a comprehensive overview of latent Markov (LM) models for the analysis of longitudinal data. The main assumption behind these models is that the response variables are conditionally independent given a latent process which follows a first-order Markov chain. We first illustrate the...

In the context of multilevel longitudinal data, where sample units are collected in clusters, an important aspect that should be accounted for is the unobserved heterogeneity between sample units and between clusters. For this aim we propose an approach based on nested hidden (latent) Markov...

In lifetime analysis of electric transformers, the maximum likelihood estimation has been proposed with the EM algorithm. However, it is not clear whether the EM algorithm offers a better solution compared to the simpler Newton-Raphson algorithm. In this paper, the first objective is a...

It has been argued that the deterministic frontier approach in inefficiency measurement has a major limitation as inefficiency is mixed with measurement error (statistical noise) in this approach. The result is that inefficiency is contaminated with noise. Later stochastic frontier approach...

The paper presents the results of an extensive real time analysis of alternative model-based approaches to derive a monthly indicator of employment for the euro area. In the experiment the Eurostat quarterly national accounts series of employment is temporally disaggregated using the information...

The aim of this paper is to analyse the role of unobserved heterogeneity in structural discrete choice models of labour supply for the evaluation of tax-reforms. Within this framework, unobserved heterogeneity has been estimated either parametrically or nonparametrically through random co-...