The paper presents and tests Dynamic Value at Risk (VaR) estimation procedures for equity index returns. Volatility clustering and leptokurtosis are well-documented characteristics of such time series. An ARMA (1, 1)-GARCH (1, 1) ap- proach models the inherent autocorrelation and dynamic...

The paper studies a factor GARCH model and develops test procedures which can be used to test the number of factors needed to model the conditional heteroskedasticity in the considered time series vector. Assuming normally distributed errors the parameters of the model can be straightforwardly...

We develop a general method to solve models of interactions between multiple agents, including the possibility of strategic advantage for some of them. We argue that this type of model applies to the description of apparently irrational or biased behaviors in a person whose action is the...

Many questions have been raised as to whether financial accounting has become more conservative. The value relevance and qualitative characteristics of accounting information have become topics of particular relevance given the role they have assumed in influencing the value judgment of...

In a programmatic article Alfred Eichner explained, from a Post Keynesian perspective, why neoclassical economics is not yet a science. This was some time ago and one would expect that Post Keynesianism, with a heightened awareness of scientific standards, has done much better than alternative...

We examine the issue of variable selection in linear regression modeling, where we have a potentially large amount of possible covariates and economic theory offers insufficient guidance on how to select the appropriate subset. In this context, Bayesian Model Averaging presents a formal Bayesian...

This paper advocates that some limits of the rational agent hypothesis result from the improper assumption that one individual should be modeled as a single rational agent. We model an individual composed of two autonomous and interacting structures, conscious and unconscious. Each agent utility...

We examine the issue of variable selection in linear regression modeling, where we have a potentially large amount of possible covariates and economic theory offers insufficient guidance on how to select the appropriate subset. Bayesian Model Averaging presents a formal Bayesian solution to...

Efficient GMM estimation of the semi-strong GARCH(1,1) model requires simultaneous estimation of the conditional third and fourth moments. This paper proposes a simple alternative to efficient GMM based upon the unconditional skewness of residuals and the autocovariances of squared residuals. An...