Over the recent decades researchers in academia and central banks have developed early warning systems (EWS) designed to warn policy makers of potential future economic and financial crises. These EWS are based on diverse approaches and empirical models. In this paper we compare the performance...

This paper investigates the dynamic implications of Krugman’s (1999) model of financial crises with balance-sheet effects, which has a considerable impact on the literature as well as the teaching of international financial crisis. By explicitly taking account of wealth accumulation and...

Iceland experienced a significant financial meltdown and subsequent economic downturn after the 2008/2009 financial crisis struck the country. It had been the worst crisis ever experienced by a small country from the late 20th century onwards. Since 1980s, Iceland's macroeconomic stability had...

During the 2007-2009 financial crisis the foreign exchange market was characterized by large volatility and wide currency swings. In this paper we evaluate whether during the period of the Great Recession there has been a structural break in the relationship between fundamentals and exchange...

This note is intended to share some observations regarding a non-exhaustive collection of the early warning literature from 1971 to 2011. Evolution of the interest in early warning models, methodological spectrum of studies and coverage of economic variables are briefly discussed in addition to...

In this paper, I give a detailed account of the creation and the evolution of Korea Investment Corporation (KIC) – a sovereign wealth fund established in 2005 by the Korean government. In doing so, I highlight three of its unique features. First, the case of KIC effectively shows the problem...

Conventional threshold models contain only one threshold variable. This paper provides the theoretical foundation for threshold models with multiple threshold variables. The new model is very different from a model with a single threshold variable as several novel problems arisefrom having an...

The current ruble crisis causes much trouble for many of those eastern European countries like Russia and its neighbour countries: Strong ruble depreciation and high inflation for consumer goods are its most negative consequences. Because the ruble is only a national currency, but not a world...

This paper explore more than 30 years of ideas on the issues surrounding the selection and assessment of exchange rate regimes. It will attempt to provide a comprehensive overview on the theoretical and empirical analysis of the selection and assessment of exchange rate regimes, exposing and...