Changes in international trade flows and world prices are major channels through which the global financial crisis will hit developing countries. The recession in the ‘global North’ triggered by the financial crisis and the resulting slowdown of growth in China and other major...

As the global economic crisis unfolds, policymakers around the world are faced with increasing pressures to resort to protectionist measures in support of domestic producers. While observable recent protectionist trends are certainly a far cry from the spiralling protectionism of the 1930s, and...

Changes in international trade flows and world prices are major channels through which the global financial crisis will hit developing countries. The recession in the "global North" triggered by the financial crisis and the resulting slowdown of growth in China and other major emerging economies...

As part of a wider review of existing scenario analyses in areas with direct relevance to the future of global development, this paper focuses on two major recent studies: the scenarios contained in the UN Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) and the scenarios developed by the International...

This paper examines the impact of bilateral real exchange rate volatility on real exports of five emerging East Asian countries among themselves as well as to thirteen industrialised countries. We explicitly recognize the specificity of the exports between the emerging East Asian and...

This paper examines recent movements in domestic cereal prices in Ethiopia in light of world price movements and production trends, and then uses a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the effects of various types of shocks on prices, incomes and food consumption, particularly...

This study provides an ex-ante computable general equilibrium (CGE) assessment of the Tripartite Free Trade Agreement between the member states of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, the East African Community and the Southern African Development Community. The CGE approach...

Due to the high concentration of economic activity along the low-lying coastal zone of the Nile delta and its dependence on Nile river streamflow, Egypt's economy is highly exposed to adverse climate change. Adaptation planning requires a forward-looking assessment of climate change impacts on...

Brazil’s trade with China has expanded at a tremendous pace over the past few years. Between 1999 and 2004, its exports to China have grown by 800 percent in value terms while the value of its imports from China has more than tripled. China is now Brazil’s third most important export...

The misalignment of the Chinese currency exposed by the rapid build-up of China’s foreign exchange reserves over the past few years has been the subject of considerable recent debate. Recent econometric studies suggest a Renminbi undervaluation on the order of 10 to 30%. The modest revaluation...