This note presents a simple generalization of the adaptive expectations mechanism in which the learning parameter is time variant. It is shown that expectations generated in this way are rational in the sense of producing minimum mean squared forecast errors for a broad class of time series...

I examine fiscal policy uncertainty in a context where market participants learn about the conduct of fiscal policy with regression rules for dependent variables including tax revenue, net transfers, government spending, and government debt. The explanatory variables include lagged fiscal...

There is an ostensible relationship between whether or not a nation is developed and the interpretation and collection of data in this nation. For instance, if a country is developing, it is difficult to collect figures, though much simpler to interpret them. The opposite is the case in a...

In an efficient stock market stock prices instantaneously and accurately adjust to new information. This paper conducts an event study analysis on an emerging market namely the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) by investigating the stock price reaction to public announcement of quarterly after tax...

Abstract. In the 1980s and at beginning of the 1990s the debate on expectation formation mechanism was dominated by the rational expectation hypothesis. Later on, more interest was directed towards alternative approaches to expectations analysis, mainly based on the bounded rationality paradigm...

This paper examines the effect of salvage market on strategic technology choice and capacity investment decision of two firms that compete on the amount of output they produce under demand uncertainty. A game theoretic model applies such that in the first stage firms choose their production...

Abstract: I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of murder in the United States (1900-2004). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal...

The U.S. and China are the world’s largest and second largest CO2 emitters, respectively, and to what extent the U.S. and China get involved in combating global climate change is extremely important both for lowering compliance costs of climate mitigation and adaptation and for moving...

The present paper embarks on an analysis of interactions between the US and Euroland in the capital, foreign exchange, money and stock markets from 1994 until 2006. Estimating multivariate EGARCH processes for the structural financial innovations determines causality-in-variance effects and...