In this study, we investigate forecasting performance of various univariate and multivariate models in predicting … forecasting ability of the different models with that of naïve ones. We find that for all forecast horizons simple naïve models … have equal forecasting ability with relatively sophisticated models which allow for richer economic dynamics. To check …

forecasting one-month ahead, especially with Bayesian VARs. Furthermore, for both real and nominal variables, the direct pooling …

-- 2010 I exhaustively evaluate the forecasting properties of Bayesian shrinkage in regressions with many predictors. Results …

, thus, making them appropriate for models of large dimensions. A comprehensive forecasting exercise involving TVP-VARs of …

terms of the forecasting performance of the FCI. Additionally, Bayesian model averaging can improve in specific cases the …

In this paper, we study main problems and practical issues of modeling and forecasting of macroeconomic variables in … variables and employ two forecasting methodologies (Waggoner and Zha (1999), Banbura, Giannone and Lenza (2014)) to construct … modeling and forecasting of macroeconomic variables and provide some policy recommendations to improve quality of statistical …

This paper addresses the issue of improving the forecasting performance of vector autoregressions (VARs) when the set …

This paper develops methods for automatic selection of variables in forecasting Bayesian vector autoregressions (VARs … Carlo experiment, and in forecasting 4 macroeconomic series of the UK using time-varying parameters vector autoregressions … (TVP-VARs). Restricted models consistently improve upon their unrestricted counterparts in forecasting, showing the merits …