Three profound changes - the mortality, fertility and contraception transitions - characterized the Victorian era in England. Economists, following Becker (1960), focus on the first two and underplay the third by assuming couples can achieve their fertility target at no cost. The historical...

This study models and forecasts the components of population growth in Arkansas through 2017. A structural econometric model is developed and used to generate ex-ante forecasts. The model includes equations for births, deaths, and net migration. These three variables, in combination with...

Long-run impact of economic growth on fertility trends is ambiguous and sensitive for in-time variations. Over last decades, economic growth has led in many countries to significant falls in total fertility rates. However, recently, in high-income economies a kind of “fertility rebound” is...

In this paper we investigate empirically the relationship between population aging begins in Morocco and private savings. To do this, we use an overlapping generations model (OLG) and annual data from 1980 to 2010. Econometric estimates show that if the increase in the dependency ratio...

The demographic database of Eurostat and of Us Census of Bureau are explored and the main facts are extracted and described. This paper is completely self-standing but is also part of a more general analysis dedicated to the functioning and sustainability of pay-as-you-go to finance the welfare...

This paper describes the reasons at the basis of the insufficiency of pay-as-you-go systems to provide resources for financing health care in an ageing society with the low rates of growth that will characterise western industrialised economies during next decades. Intuitive arguments are...

This working paper attributes a (potential) path of per-capita US output to demographic effects of the post-war baby boom. To the extent that the baby-boom generation predominates among age cohorts in the US population, a life-cycle model suggests a secular trend in per-capita GDP that is...

By using the Sri Lanka Household Income and Expenditure Surveys in 2002, 2006/2007, and 2009/2010, this paper examines patterns and determinants of employment status of the Sri Lankan elderly. The study employs multinomial logit model to realize the research objectives. The results of the study...

Demographic transition theory is developed highlighting cultural transmission pattern as key driver. Individuals maximize cultural fitness, i.e. rate of own cultural type absorbtion by future generations. With low population density, one's culture can be picked up only by own children, thus...

We examine the effect of genetic diversity on economic development in the United States. Our estimation strategy exploits that immigrants from different countries of origin differed in their genetic diversity and that these immigrants settled in different regions. Based on a sample of over 2250...