The discovery of the dynamics of a time series requires construction of the transition density, 1-point densities and scaling exponents provide no knowledge of the dynamics. Time series require some sort of statistical regularity, otherwise there is no basis for analysis. We state the possible...

The paper analyses common Russian practice of assessment of the effectiveness of the unit investment fund portfolio management based on the risk/return tradeoff. The paper identifies characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of various portfolio risk measures, and introduces the approach to...

Like all good theories, market efficiency has major limitations, even though it continues to be the source of important and enduring insights. This is a conceptual framework on global financial crisis and Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). Despite the theory’s undoubted limitations, the claim...

The aim of this paper is to propose a new model of bubbles and crashes to elucidate a mechanism of bubbles and subsequent crashes. We consider an asset market in which the risky assets into two classes, the risky asset, and the risk-free asset are traded. Investors are divided into two groups of...

This paper explores the opportunities of momentum and contrarian profits on the Bucharest Stock Exchange during quiet and turbulent times. In our investigation we employ daily values of the main indexes from the Bucharest Stock Exchange for two periods of time. During the first period, from...

Groenewold et al (2004a) documented that the Chinese stock market is inefficient. In this paper, we revisit the efficiency problem of the Chinese stock market using time-series model based trading rules. Our paper distinguishes itself from previous studies in several aspects. First, while...

This study suggests that, run test, which are based on signs of indices / rates, do not reject efficient market hypothesis in the case of all the three markets, whereas VR tests, which capture the variation in permanent component of the series as a ratio to the total variation, reject the...

In a chaotic and confusing place as world of investing is, the practitioners, who operate on markets every day, have continuously searched to forecast properly the market movements. More minded to financial speculations, practitioners analyse financial markets looking for potential weaknesses of...

From the Efficient Market Hypothesis, a market is efficient if security prices fully and correctly reflect all available information that is relevant for the stock’s pricing. This requires a medium of information dissemination and transaction ordering with both speed and accuracy. This paper...