Criterion (AIC)?, and (ii) Is BIC better than AIC for forecasting purposes? By using simulated data, we provide statistical … type-I error. Both testing procedures deliver the same result: The BIC shows an in- and out-of-sample superiority over AIC …We test two questions: (i) Is the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) more parsimonious than Akaike Information …

Monte Carlo algorithm which only needs to sample the states around change-points. Simulations for a normal mean-shift model …

when location and number are unknown. It is shown that the BIC, which is almost always used as a pruning method, does not …

. We propose a modified version of the AIC (Akaike information criterion). This criterion requires the estimation of the … matrice involved in the asymptotic variance of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of these models. Monte carlo experiments … show that the proposed modified criterion estimates the model orders more accurately than the standard AIC and AICc …

, Final Prediction Error, Corrected version of AIC) have been proposed in the literature to overcome this difficulty. We have …

cover linear representations of general nonlinear processes. We propose a modified criterion to the corrected AIC (Akaïke … estimator of the Kullback-Leibler discrepancy, originally used to derive AIC-based criteria. Moreover, this criterion requires … the estimation of the matrice involved in the asymptotic variance of the quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimator of the …

In the 17th and 18th centuries, relations between the European states had a relatively predictable evolution. They were … almost insignificant, throughout the 17th century, first in France then in other states, the European monarchs built an ever … more specialised diplomatic system. The tools for the new external policy of the European states became more diverse. If at …

I test Bates' view that trade across ecological divides promoted the development of states in pre-colonial Africa. My … main result is that sub-Saharan societies in ecologically diverse environments had more centralized pre-colonial states. I … narrative evidence to show the results are not due to conquest of trading regions. I also test mechanisms by which trade may …

India’s states. In this paper, we bridge this gap in research by looking at India’s services growth at the sub … distribution. The first interesting finding is that even as per capita income is not converging across India’s states, per capita … richer states. This suggests that the benefits from services growth are being distributed more widely than may be perceived. …