This paper investigates the issue of rational expectations using inflation forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and the Green Book. We provide an alternative test of rational expectations hypothesis by measuring the degree of persistence of potential systematic mistakes....

Canonical analysis of the classical general equilibrium model demonstrates the existence of an open and dense subset of standard economies that possess fully-revealing rational expectations equilibria. This paper shows that the analogous result is not true in urban economies under appropriate...

Canonical analysis of the classical general equilibrium model demonstrates the existence of an open and dense subset of standard economies that possess fully-revealing rational expectations equilibria. This paper shows that the analogous result is not true in urban economies under reasonable...

There is hope for the generalized method of moments (GMM). Lanne and Saikkonen (2011) show that the GMM estimator is inconsistent, when the instruments are lags of noncausal variables. This paper argues that this inconsistency depends on distributional assumptions, that do not always hold. In...

This note generalizes Feldstein’s (1976) criticism of Barro’s(1974) analysis for the case that the interest rate exceeds the growth rate. This is done by considering an economy in steady state where all agents hold “Barro expectations”: they believe that government debt must necessarily...

The Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) states that the actual outcome will be identical to the optimal forecast when all obtainable information had been utilized in forming the expectations. This study intends to empirically examine the existence of rational behavior in the banks and other...

We obtain a closed-form solution to rational expectations equilibrium with transaction costs in the framework of Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) [On the impossibility of informationally efficient markets. American Economic Review 70, 543-566]. Individual private information incorporated into prices...

The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to discuss the theoretical foundations and policy implications of two of the offshoots of modern macroeconomics viz., supply-side economics and rational expectations; and second to evaluate the recent development of thinking in macroeconomics. Thereby...

Economists are widely familiar with the Ricardian equivalence thesis. It maintains that, given the time-path of government spending, a change in taxation does not alter the set of feasible life-time consumption plans of the households and affects neither the demand for commodities and services...

This paper presents a macroeconomic model with some microfoundations for a small open economy. The main purpose is the simulation of external environment and fiscal policy shocks. The model includes sufficiently disaggregated public sector and household disposable income accounts and it...