Showing 1 - 10 of 804
finance; for such tasks as pattern reorganization, and time series forecasting, have dramatically increased. Many central … banks use forecasting models based on ANN methodology for predicting various macroeconomic indicators, like inflation, GDP … ANN model with conventional univariate time series forecasting models such as AR(1) and ARIMA based models and observed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005835473
Schwarz. In this paper I evaluate the predictive ability of the Akaike and Schwarz information criteria using autoregressive integrated moving average models, with sectoral data of Chilean GDP. In terms of root mean square error, and after the estimation of more than a million models, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009418476
There is no standard economic forecasting procedure that systematically outperforms the others at all horizons and with … forecasting purposes where the traditional ARMA specification is preferred. Accounting for the Easter effect improves the forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009418499
We analyse the multihorizon forecasting performance of several strategies to estimate the stationary AR(1) model in a … driftless random walk (RW). In addition, we explore the forecasting performance of pairwise combinations between these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011195671
explosion of stochastic mortality models forecasting trends in mortality data in order to anticipate future life expectancy and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011206890
-- 2010 I exhaustively evaluate the forecasting properties of Bayesian shrinkage in regressions with many predictors. Results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009004835
We fit the normal inverse Gaussian(NIG) distribution to foreign exchange closing prices using the open software package R and select best models by Kaarik and Umbleja (2011) proposed strategy. We observe that daily closing prices(12/04/2008 - 07/08/2012) of CHF/JPY, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY, NZD/USD,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011108989
We use factor augmented vector autoregressive models with time-varying coefficients to construct a financial conditions index. The time-variation in the parameters allows for the weights attached to each financial variable in the index to evolve over time. Furthermore, we develop methods for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011108998
, thus, making them appropriate for models of large dimensions. A comprehensive forecasting exercise involving TVP-VARs of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011109841
This paper provides an answer to the question of whether Europe will be able to reach its tertiary education target by 2020. Insights into the dynamics of future education attainment and areas for effective policy interventions in the long-run are highlighted. We model the dynamics behind...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011110221