Like many countries, Spain has gone through a series of financial crises, both before and after its industrialization. There are many underlying causes for these crises, as well as for the current Spanish downturn. It is worth noting that there are similarities between recessions throughout the...

A well known macroeconometric model of the Italian economy is updated to produce forecasts at 1974.

Experiments of stochastic simulation on a nonlinear macroeconometric model are described in this paper. The results are used both for improving the validation of a model of the Italian economy and for revisiting the heuristic value of the stochastic simulation methodology.

This paper describes some analytic simulation experiments performed on a nonlinear macroeconometric model of the Italian economy. The proposed techniques extend to nonlinear models methods that are available, in the literature, for linear econometric models. The results can be profitably used...

This paper is part of efforts to develop macroeconometric model for Pakistan (MMP). This paper is an initial attempt to develop a small size macroeconometric model to foresee the effects of monetary policy through forecasting and simulations. We present the basic structure of macroeconometric...

Experiments of stochastic simulation on a macro model of the Italian economy; this paper describes the first results produced by the research team.

Five alternative techniques have been applied to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with the forecasts produced by a macro-model of the French economy, the Mini-DMS developed at INSEE. They are bootstrap, analytic simulation on coefficients, Monte Carlo on coefficients, parametric...

The drawbacks of predictors obtained with the usual deterministic solution methods in nonlinear systems of stochastic equations have been widely investigated in the literature. Most of the proposed therapies are based on some estimation of the conditional mean of the endogenous variables in the...

It is purpose of this paper to evidence, in the behaviour of the Mini-DMS model for the French economy, some stochastic properties which may confirm, strengthen or sometimes contradict the results obtained from the standard simulation analysis, which is purely deterministic. In particular, the...

Multipliers are often used for selecting alternative policies in economic planning and forecasting. Particular variables like employment, trade balance, inflation or government budget usually impose constraints on the policy action. Therefore a criterion to be preferred to the raw multiplier...