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increments, justifies an evaluation of the consequences on global growth and inflation. This article presents a brief review of … estimation of the effect of a further increase in the price of oil over growth and inflation for the main industrial economies. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005617155
This note examines Prabhat Patnaik's argument that the contemporary international financial system crucially requires the stability of oil prices in terms of the dollar. By comparing the macroeconomic impact of recent oil shocks to those of the 1970s, it argues that sharp changes in the dollar...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005622070
inflation in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries over the 1980-2008 period. We argue that, in GCC countries, money is … supply stands out as a significant determinant of inflation both in short- and long-run. Both foreign prices and the nominal … effective exchange rate are shown to be more successful in explaining inflation in the long-run than the short-run. The half …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008765622
analysis of financial markets’ behaviour through inflation and interest rates cannot define the real interactions of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008765623
fluctuation with GDP, exports and inflation in Pakistan. Our results confirmed cointegration among the variables when GDP was … considered as dependent variable, while in case of inflation as responding variable, the long run relation among the variables … technique, we confirmed that causal link is running from oil price and oil price fluctuation to GDP and inflation. We could not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011107799
This double-issue contains 11 papers invited for the first special issue on “Computational methods for Russian economic and financial modelling”. It was an attempt to explore and bring together practical, state-of-the-art applications of computational techniques with a particular focus on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114387
This paper examines the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and stock market in 11 OECD countries using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM). Considering both world oil production and world oil prices to supervise for oil supply and oil demand shocks, strong evidence of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011253065
This study aims to introduce an ideal model for forecasting crude oil price volatility. For this purpose, the ‘predictability’ hypothesis was tested using the variance ratio test, BDS test and the chaos analysis. Structural analyses were also carried out to identify possible nonlinear...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011258951
inflation indicator. When it topped the USD 50 mark in October 2004 and in March 2005 and, even more clearly, when it passed USD … real terms – after adjusting for inflation – the oil price is still lower now than it was then. Another striking factor is … of monetary policy, this paper focuses primarily on the impact of oil prices on inflation; the effects on growth are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005025692
Using a recursive vector autoregression (VAR), this paper considers the relation between the U.S. real interest rate and the real oil price. Theoretically, as outlined in Hotelling (1931) and Working (1949), a lower real interest rate results in reduced production and increased storage, implying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009397191