In this paper, we examine the directional predictability of excess stock market returns by lagged excess returns from industry portfolios and a number of other commonly used variables by means of dynamic probit models. We focus on the directional component of the market returns because, for...

The aim of this article is to assess whether a fiscal sustainability indicator (FSI) can be used as an early warning indicator for predicting the probability that a currency crisis occurs. Using the FSI developed by Croce and Juan-Ramón (2003) and two different definitions of currency crisis, a...

In India, poverty reduction is one of the major objectives of economic development programmes. Though, India was the first country in the world to define poverty as the total per capita expenditure of the lowest expenditure class, which is required to ascertain a minimum intake of 2400 kcal/day...

This paper examines the predictive content of coincident variables for monitoring U.S. recessions in the presence of instabilities. We propose several specifications of a probit model for classifying phases of the business cycle. We find strong evidence in favor of the ones that allow for the...

The successful formation and long-term stability of a cooperative venture is often linked to the perceived fairness of the associated cost or resource allocation. In particular, the effectiveness of such collaborations can be hampered by the lack of a consensus view on what basis should be used...

In the empirical finance literature findings on the risk return tradeoff in excess stock market returns are ambiguous. In this study, we develop a new QR-GARCH-M model combining a probit model for a binary business cycle indicator and a regime switching GARCH-in-mean model for excess stock...

This paper examines the determinants of speculative attacks that occurred recently in the Dominican Republic, and proposes a series of indicators to serve as an early warning system for identifying vulnerable periods. The estimates were made using monthly data covering the period between January...

We compare the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the time-varying hazard model developed by Shumway (2001) and the one-period probit model used by Cole and Gunther (1998). Using data on U.S. bank failures from 1985 – 1992, we find that, from an econometric perspective, the hazard model is...

In this paper, I provide a probit analysis in which the propensity of private Italian firms to offer on-the-job training is linked to the age and the gender of the employed workforce as well as to a set of relevant corporate characteristics such as size, sector, geographical location, innovation...

Internal market structure analysis infers both brand attributes and consumer preferences for those attributes from preference or choice data. The authors exploit a new method for estimating probit models from panel data to infer market structures that can be displayed in few dimensions, even...