This paper proposes the evaluation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) under a new learning mechanism where VAR learning dynamics is combined with the idea of testing the validity of the forward-looking model of inflation dynamics. The key assumption is that agents’ perceived law of...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

In this paper, we examine causal relationships among inflation rate, output growth rate, inflation uncertainty and output uncertainty for ten Central and Eastern European transition countries. For this purpose, we estimate a bivariate GARCH model that includes output growth and inflation rates...

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

This work has objetive to discuss a new approach for the model IS-LM proposal by Romer (2000), which curved LM is substituted by a curved MP (monetary policy of the Central Bank). The work was motivated by the need of a more coherent model with the current economic reality for forecast and...

This study was conducted to determine the long-run relationship among world oil price (WOP), Philippine inflation rate (IR) and exchange rate (ER). Results of the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) tests of the variables revealed that all three series are not stationary in the process and were...

Grandmont (1985) found that the parameter space of the most classical dynamic general-equilibrium macroeconomic models are stratified into an infinite number of subsets supporting an infinite number of different kinds of dynamics, from monotonic stability at one extreme to chaos at the other...

In this paper, we ask whether it is possible to forecast gross-value added (GVA) and its sectoral sub-components at the regional level. We are probably the first who evaluate sectoral forecasts at the regional level using a huge data set at quarterly frequency to investigate this issue. With an...

Provides analysis for a practical action planto implement pro-poor policies through macroeconomic initiatives. The study covers sequencing and implementation issues and provides estimates of both macro and significant microeconomic impacts. The major components of the study are (a) a general...

The U.S. during the 1984-2007 Great Moderation saw unusual macroeconomic stability combined with strong growth in asset prices and in credit relative to output. The distribution of credit shifted towards the financial and real estate sectors. The literature shows that each of these trends...