This paper investigates the impact of the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy on both the accuracy of probabilistic forecasts and the sluggishness of economic growth. It first posits the Gaussian process Zt (indexed by the Hurst exponent H) as the output of a reflexive dynamic input/output system governed...

One of the challenges face a country or firm when deciding to lend a foreign country or firm is how to appraise the creditworthiness of that firm or country? It is experienced and commonly use of credit ratings established by Credit Rating Agencies (Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s and Pitch) as...

In this paper we present our experiences with the execution of structural economic models over the Grid using ”cloud computing”. We describe cases of distributed implementation and execution of occupational choice and financial deepening models of economic growth. We show how the...

A linear link between S&P 500 return and the change rate of the number of nine-year-olds in the USA has been found. The return is represented by a sum of monthly returns during previous twelve months. The change rate of the specific age population is represented by moving averages. The period...

Der Beitrag diskutiert die Anwendung des im Rahmen der Unternehmensbewertung häufig angewandten Gordon/Shapiro-Modells bei Vorliegen von Inflation sowie persönlichen Steuern. Gezeigt wird, dass sich steuerlich bedingtes und inflationsinduziertes Wachstum parallel im Kalkül erfassen lassen,...

Episodes of market crashes have fascinated economists for centuries. Although many academics, practitioners and policy makers have studied questions related to collapsing asset price bubbles, there is little consensus yet about their causes and effects. This review and essay evaluates some of...

This paper shows that a decision maker using the CAPM for valuing firms and making decisions may contradict Modigliani and Miller’s Proposition I, if he adopts the widely-accepted disequilibrium NPV. As a consequence, CAPM-minded agents employing this NPV are open to arbitrage losses and miss...

This paper takes a closer look at the puzzle uncovered by Driesprong et al. (2008) and finds empirical support for the "oil effect" in equity returns. Using forty nine US industry-level returns series and changes in oil spot and future prices, we address whether industry-level returns are...

We reexamine the empirical relevance of habit formation preferences with micro-data on households' portfolio choices. We first derive the analytical solution to the risky asset share in a theoretical model with both habits and time-varying labor income. Our analytical results indicate that (1)...