In Albers & Albers (Spring, 2013) we demonstrated that the historic development of U.S. real GNP, 1869-present, may be structured in recurring 14-year periods. A steady-state rate of growth of 3.4969% is thereby calculated, generating an increase in real GNP proportional to the famous “Golden...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency...

The Bank of the Euro, that is the European Central Bank, is the topic of this paper, since on January 1999 started the European Monetary Union that introduced a single currency, the euro, which in turn will be managed by the European Central Bank. The paper takes in particular consideration what...

This paper theoretically examines a way out of the euro crisis based on a model of inflation acceleration and differentials. The conclusion is that, unless more advantaged states (e.g., Germany) systematically transfer a necessary amount of money to less advantaged states (e.g., Greece) in every...

This paper examines the mechanism of persistent inflation differentials, current account imbalances, and fiscal deficits in the euro area by constructing a multi-country model in which the optimization behaviors of governments as well as those of households, firms, and the European Central Bank...

In the article it is shown that current definitions of economic recessions are unsatisfactory. NBER definition of an economic recession is only qualitative, so it does not enable identifying recession unequivocally. Another often used ‘technical definition’ of a recession takes into account...

In this article recession magnitudes in Europe, the USA and Japan during the Great Recession are compared. The strongest recessions (of severe category) occurred in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, while recessions in Japan and the USA were significantly weaker. Even the strongest recession (in...

The paper investigates the time-varying correlation between the EU12-wide business cycle and the initial EU12 member-countries based on scalar-BEKK and multivariate Riskmetrics model frameworks for the period 1980-2009. The paper provides evidence that changes in the business cycle...