It remains unclear whether or not Russia will actually invade Ukraine, and if it does so, what form this invasion will take. In this note, we outline two broad scenarios: targeted strikes by Russia in Ukraine accompanied by further non-military destabilisation efforts, or a full invasion, and we...

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered a humanitarian, economic, financial and political crisis that will reverberate across Europe. In this Policy Note we analyse the short- and medium-term implications of the conflict. We find that the most severe economic and financial impact will be...