Summary Despite near stagnation in the euro area and the negative impact of the Ukraine crisis, in most of the NMS economies and some of the Western Balkan countries growth prospects are viewed as positive. While the NMS economies will preserve their positive growth differential vis-à-vis the...

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) expects GDP in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) to pick up speed and grow on average by 2-3% over the forecast period 2014-2016 a major driving force rooted in an upward reversal of public and private investment. The...

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) expects GDP in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) to pick up speed and grow on average by 2-3% over the forecast period 2014-2016 a major driving force rooted in an upward reversal of public and private investment. The...

Poland new government, but not-so-new policy? (by Leon Podkaminer; pp. 1-2 ) Keywords fiscal policy, fiscal consolidation Countries covered Poland Topics Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy Banks in Poland should be under domestic control (by Stefan Kawalec; pp. 3-10) Keywords banking system...

External determinants Two key factors currently affect the economic prospects of CESEE the crisis in the euro area and movements in the commodity prices. For Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine declining world market prices of energy carriers, steel and other basic commodities are vital. For most of...

Summary The protracted recession in the euro area will continue to be a drag on the economic growth of most CESEE countries in 2013. By and large, those countries are small open economies held hostage to the excessive fiscal austerity pursued in the euro area and the sluggish progress on the...

Summary Continued weak external demand and uncertain recovery of investments will allow for only modest growth prospects for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) this year. Slovenia, Croatia and the Czech Republic will remain in recession. Russia, Ukraine and the Baltic...

The pressures on fiscal consolidation have mounted dramatically in the wake of the Greek and then the 'contagion' crisis which followed it (across the so-called 'weakest links' Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland). It led to the setting-up of the 750 billion euro stabilisation package widely seen as...

Fiscal constraint is potentially lax in catching-up economies, but it has not been abused by most countries considered in this paper. Fiscal risks are significant currently, but sustainability and structural balances are not threatened as a rule, if the return to potential growth rates is to be...

Public debt developments in the CEE countries (by A. Miklaszewicz; pp. 1-4) Keywords public debt, sustainability, CEE Countries covered CEE Topics Macroeconomic Analysis, Forecasts and Policy China's quest for oil abroad between state and market (by W. Urban; pp. 5-11) Keywords oil supply and...