We use partisan and opportunistic political business cycle (“PBC”) considerations to develop and test a framework for explaining election-period changes in credit spreads for developing country sovereign bonds. Pre-election bond spread trends are significantly linked both to the partisan...

We use partisan and opportunistic political business cycle (“PBC”) considerations to develop a framework for explaining election-period decisions by credit rating agencies (“agencies”) publishing developing country sovereign risk-ratings (“ratings”). We test six hypotheses derived...

This paper introduces a framework of investor behavior in which investors form their expectations regarding the credibility of a prospective IMF program in reforming the financial sector characterized by domestic implicit guarantees. We examine the changes in financial sector returns in response...

In this paper we describe a method to decompose a well-known measure of debt ratings mobility into it’s directional components. We show, using sovereign debt ratings as an example, that this directional decomposition allows us to better understand the underlying characteristics of debt ratings...

The three countries took different stances in regards to economic policy; the Czech Republic pursued a shock therapy regime which aimed to stabilise the economy, Hungary’s policy was more relaxed whilst Poland had an aggressive reform programme. Regarding monetary policy the Czech Republic...

Results support Arestis’s theory, that low real interest rates do not prevent economic growth (though he related it to the regulation debate). Here in the deregulation environment, it also stands. Results also support Shaw’s assertion that financial liberalisation increases the monetary...

When the first phase of the crisis focused primarily on the interbank market volatility, the second phase spread on the instability of public finance. Although the overall stance of public finances of the new members is better than the old member countries, the differences within the new group...

This paper expands on the work of Sarno and Taylor (1999) and develops three alternative models in which creditor moral hazard might occur in equity markets under different assumptions regarding the existence of asset market bubbles and implicit guarantees. Incorporating IMF-related news...

We show that the imputation of reinvested profits of the subsidiaries of foreign firms as a debit item on a host country's balance of payments account tends to overstate the current account deficit. We also show that, because of the workings of the FDI financial life cycle, this phenomenon is...

This paper critically evaluates the existing empirical literature on creditor moral hazard in sovereign bond markets, proposes a unified theoretical approach to test for IMF-induced creditor moral hazard, and provides empirical evidence, using daily sovereign bond market spreads of Indonesia and...