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Democratization’s Risk Premium: Partisan and Opportunistic Political Business Cycle Effects on Sovereign Ratings in Developing Countries

Block, Steven; Schrage, Burkhard N.; Vaaler, Paul M. - William Davidson Institute, University of Michigan - 2003

We use partisan and opportunistic political business cycle (“PBC”) considerations to develop a framework for explaining election-period decisions by credit rating agencies (“agencies”) publishing developing country sovereign risk-ratings (“ratings”). We test six hypotheses derived...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005784745

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Transition Economies: The Case of the Republic of Macedonia

Fetai, Besnik - William Davidson Institute, University of Michigan - 2011

This paper investigates the relative costs and benefits associated with introducing a different exchange rate regime in the Republic of Macedonia. In this finding, all econometrics results, using different methodologies (SVAR and VECM), show that introducing a different strategy of the exchange...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010545920

PRICE SETTING AND MARKET STRUCTURE: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF MICRO DATA

Coricelli, Fabrizio; Horvath, Roman - William Davidson Institute, University of Michigan - 2008

of pricing behavior. The effect of market structure on persistence of inflation results from two conflicting forces … the frequency of price changes depends negatively on the price dispersion and positively on the product-specific inflation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008529042

Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve in EU-4

Vasicek, Borek - William Davidson Institute, University of Michigan - 2009

The paper seeks to shed light on inflation dynamics of four new EU member states (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland … inflation-forcing variable is fragile. (2) Inflation seems to be driven by external factors. (3) Although inflation holds … forward-looking component, the backward-looking one is substantial. An intuitive explanation for higher inflation persistence …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008529044

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Southeastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) Diseased?

Égert, Balázs - William Davidson Institute, University of Michigan - 2005

This paper investigates the equilibrium exchange rates of three Southeastern European countries (Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania), of two CIS economies (Russia and Ukraine) and of Turkey. A systematic approach in terms of different time horizons at which the equilibrium exchange rate is assessed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005677613

Consumers' Opinion of Inflation Bias Due to Quality Improvements

Hanousek, Jan; Filer, Randall K. - William Davidson Institute, University of Michigan - 2004

inflation. We propose a new methodology of capturing quality improvements based on consumer focus groups and apply this …, and, therefore, a substantial overstatement of inflation resulting in a serious downward bias in growth rate estimates for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005652686

How Important Are Foreign Shocks in Small Open Economy? The Case of Slovakia

Horváth, Roman; Rusnák, Marek - William Davidson Institute, University of Michigan - 2008

In this paper, we provide evidence on the nature and the relative importance of domestic and foreign shocks in Slovak economy based on block-restriction vector autoregression model in 1999-2007. We document well-functioning monetary transmission mechanism in Slovakia. Subject to various...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008529041

Instability in Exchange Rates of the World Leading Currencies: Implications of a Spatial Competition Model among Central Banks

Engelmann, Dirk; Hanousek, Jan; Kocenda, Evžen - William Davidson Institute, University of Michigan - 2004

We use a spatial competition based model in a two-stage game setup to assess whether equilibrium in exchange rates among the leading currencies is attainable. We show that a stable equilibrium can be reached in the case of two leading currencies, but not in the case of three. In our model,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005677454

Russia from Bust to Boom: Oil, Politics or the Ruble?

Merlevede, Bruno; Schoors, Koen; Aarle, Bas van - William Davidson Institute, University of Michigan - 2004

This paper develops and estimates a small macroeconomic model of the Russian economy. The model is tailored to analyze the impact of the oil price, the exchange rate, and political stability on economic performance. The model does very well in explaining Russia’s economic history in the period...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005677573

Exchange Rate Policy and Inflation in Acceding Countries: The Role of Pass-through

Coricelli, Fabrizio; Jazbec, Boštjan; Masten, Igor - William Davidson Institute, University of Michigan - 2004

provide the most efficient framework for reducing inflation. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005677690