"This paper relaxes some key assumptions in the probabilistic approach to fiscal sustainability. First, the authors identify structural breaks over the sample period used to estimate the covariance matrix of the shocks to the debt ratios. Second, the assumption of normality of the shocks is...

Argentina approaches its bicentennial as an independent republic and has a window of opportunity in social protection policy. Following the most serious economic crisis in its history during 2001-02, the country mobilized an effort to provide income support to the population in need. Now, as...