In an a priori view, it is usually assumed that the business cycle of manufacturing industries leads the business cycle of the service sector. This seems to be even more plausible for the relationship between business-related services, whose high growth rates in recent years were largely due to...

In this paper we analyze the macroeconomic forecasts of the Consensus Forecasts for 12 countries over the period from 1996 to 2006 regarding bias and information efficiency. A pooled approach is employed which permits the evaluation of all forecasts for each target variable over 24 horizons...

The study analyses the business cycles of the G7 countries in a structural vector autoregression(SVAR) framework comprising output, nominal interest rate and inflation. Common and country-specific supply, demand and nominal shocks of each G7 country are identified, and the corresponding shock...

Diese Dokumentation stellt einen Konjunkturindikator für einen Bereich vor, der von der amtlichen Statistik nur unzureichend erfaßt wird. Dieser Service Sentiment Indicator ermöglicht es, die konjunkturelle Situation im immer wichtiger werdenden Wirtschaftszweig unternehmensnahe...

The aim of this paper is to assess the dimension of factors and shocks that drive financial conditions, and in particular financial stress in the euro area. A second aim is to construct summary indices on the conditions and level of stress in financial markets with the aid of a dynamic factor...