We describe a simple Importance Sampling strategy for Monte Carlo simulations based on a least squares optimization procedure. With several numerical examples, we show that such Least Squares Importance Sampling (LSIS) provides efficiency gains comparable to the state of the art techniques, when...

We show how Adjoint Algorithmic Differentiation (AAD) allows an extremely efficient calculation of correlation Risk of option prices computed with Monte Carlo simulations. A key point in the construction is the use of binning to simultaneously achieve computational efficiency and accurate...

In this paper we discuss a closed-form approximation of the likelihood functions of an arbitrary diffusion process. The approximation is based on an exponential ansatz of the transition probability for a finite time step $\Delta t$, and a series expansion of the deviation of its logarithm from...

A computational technique borrowed from the physical sciences is introduced to obtain accurate closed-form approximations for the transition probability of arbitrary diffusion processes. Within the path integral framework the same technique allows one to obtain remarkably good approximations of...

A recently introduced Importance Sampling strategy based on a least squares optimization is applied to the Monte Carlo simulation of Libor Market Models. Such Least Squares Importance Sampling (LSIS) allows the automatic optimization of the sampling distribution within a trial class by means of...

A new framework for asset pricing based on modelling the information available to market participants is presented. Each asset is characterised by the cash flows it generates. Each cash flow is expressed as a function of one or more independent random variables called market factors or...

A new framework for asset price dynamics is introduced in which the concept of noisy information about future cash flows is used to derive the price processes. In this framework an asset is defined by its cash-flow structure. Each cash flow is modelled by a random variable that can be expressed...

We consider a class of generalized capital asset pricing models in continuous time with a finite number of agents and tradable securities. The securities may not be sufficient to span all sources of uncertainty. If the agents have exponential utility functions and the individual endowments are...

We develop a class of non-life reserving models using a stable-1/2 random bridge to simulate the accumulation of paid claims, allowing for an essentially arbitrary choice of a priori distribution for the ultimate loss. Taking an information-based approach to the reserving problem, we derive the...

We propose a class of discrete-time stochastic models for the pricing of inflation-linked assets. The paper begins with an axiomatic scheme for asset pricing and interest rate theory in a discrete-time setting. The first axiom introduces a "risk-free" asset, and the second axiom determines the...