Are expansions and recessions more likely to end as their magnitude increases? In this paper we apply parametric hazard models to investigate this issue in a sample of 16 countries from 1881 to 2000. For the total sample we find evidence of positive magnitude dependence for recessions, while for...

We model a network economy with three sectors: downstream firms, upstream firms, and banks. Agents are linked by productive and credit relationships so that the behavior of one agent influences the behavior of the others through network connections. Credit interlinkages among agents are a source...