We empirically test whether there is a causal link between the real interest rate and the natural rate of interest, which could be a harbinger of secular stagnation if the real rate declines. Outcomes of VAR models for Japan, Germany and the US show that a fall in the real rate indeed affects...

One of the main criticisms on the original Taylor rule is the so-called real time critique; because data on especially the output gap are only available after some quarters the original Taylor rule is not operational. Moreover, Taylor rules estimated with ex post revised data could result in...

Central banks have become increasingly transparent during the last decade. One of the main benefits of transparency predicted by theoreticalmodels is that it enhances the credibility, reputation, and flexibility of monetary policy, which suggests that increased transparency should result in...

We show that comments by euro area central bankers contain information on future ECB interest rate decisions, but that the comments mainly reflect recent developments in macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, models using only communication variables are outperformed by straightforward Taylor...

We develop a theoretical framework for studying the effects of interaction on the quality of decision-making by monetary policy committees. We show that interaction, is increasing one's expertise through an exchange of views, is most likely not to result in interdependent voting behaviour....

We investigate the implications for he setting of interest rates when monetary policy decisions are taken by a committee, in which a subset of members may meet prior to the voting in the commitee and therefore has the possibility to reach consensus ex ante to vote unanimously ex post. We allow...

One of the main criticisms on the original Taylor rule is the so-called real time critique; because data on especially the output gap are only available after some quarters the original Taylor rule is not operational. Moreover, Taylor rules estimated with ex post revised data could result in...