In this study we construct a business cycle indicator for the Netherlands. The Christiano-Fitzgerald band-pass .lter is employed to isolate the cycle using the de.nition of business cycle frequencies as waves with lengths longer than 3 years and shorter than 11 years. The main advantage of...

In this paper the business cycles of nine OECD-countries are identified by applying the Christiano-Fitzgerald bandpass filter. Turning points, recession and expansion phases and other descriptive statistics are derived from these business cylce indicators. Moreover, the international linkage...

Formal testing and estimation of nonlinear relations require a substantial number of observations which are typically lacking in annual models. In this paper, a novel two-step procedure is introduced to model nonlinearities in yearly asset-price based leading indicator models for growth. In the...

This report presents leading indicators of real gdp-growth for the United States, Japan and 7 EU member countries. These indicators make use of business cycle indicators developed at the Bank, together with information contained in financial and monetary variables like the yieldcurve, the money...

This paper applies large scale factor models to Dutch quarterly data in order to generate forecasts of GDP growth rates for an horizon up to 8 quarters ahead. The data set consists of the series underlying the cen- tral bank´s macroeconomic structural model for the Netherlands sup- plemented...

Traditional unobserved component models assume that the trend, cycle and seasonal components of an individual time series evolve separately over time. Although this assumption has been relaxed in recent papers that focus on trend-cycle interactions, it remains at the core of all seasonal...

We provide new insights on the formation of inflation expectations - in particular at a time of great financial and economic turmoil - by evaluating results from a survey conducted from July 2009 through July 2010. Participants in this survey answered a weekly questionnaire about their short-,...

We employ a unique dataset of transaction records to analyse whether results of consumer surveys are influenced by the survey setup. We have asked more than 5,000 consumers to report their payments using seven different data collection methods. The results of the seven pilot studies were...

This paper investigates the impact of consumers' safety perception on debit card and cash usage. A conceptual framework of safety perception and payment behaviour is introduced and tested with 2008 consumer survey data. The results demonstrate that consumers' payment preferences for cash and...

Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate these puzzles, recent research has started to elicit private households' expectations of stock...